Thursday, April 3, 2008

Can AAPL Regain 200 This Year?

AAPL broke $150 yesterday then retreated. For a brief moment there was a gleam in Apple Investor's eyes. We were green after a huge breakout the day before. Did the bulls finally say enough is enough to the Bears, exclaiming, it's our game now. Then our aspirations of regaining the mountain slowly and steadily diminished. Was this going to be a repeat of all the failed breakouts before, same story, different day? We crossed into the red, and kept going down. But then, at the eleventh hour, actually a bit earlier than that, the Bulls regained their composure and said, not today, not today!

Like many times before, breakouts have been dashed the following day with not just retests, but massive selloffs. But not this time, this day was different. We were still above the 50 day EMA, and above it we stayed. That was critical if our hopes of regaining the hill was to be. AAPL followed along, though near the end of the day it looked for a moment that it was loosing steam. Is the Bear market over, are we out of the woods. Not yet, not by a long shot. This is a day by day battle, without yet a victor.

The back test yesterday was very healthy for the overall market, and AAPL. This is evidenced by today's action. RIMM helped to boost Apple, with strong after hours blowout earnings. Some would argue that the cache that the iPhone has generated has breathed new life into RIM. So, if we can clear 152.55 on a closing basis, I think we'll see we'll see 160 in the not so distant future. From there, resistance is futile. We'll be hopscotching our way to 180, going from resistances marked by past gap downs.

So, what do you think? Will we hit/surpass 200 this year? And if so, how long will it take. register your opinion in my "Apple Trumps RIM" survey.

-zach bass

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