Apple Planning Massive Rollout of 3G iPhone, SDK 2.0

I'm surprised that Apple's recent barrage of deals among carriers around the world has not gathered more notice. It appears that the impact of the new SDK, App Store and the 3G iPhone will be bigger than anyone is prepared for, I believe it will be disruptive, seminal, historic.

Look at the deals that have been put together in just a few short weeks, it's dizzying. The iPhone is currently in the US and 3 countries of Europe, by the end of the summer it appears Apple will be operating on every continent in a total of 46 countries!

The potential market in with current operations is approximately 150 million. With the new deals Apple has sealed, they have increased their potential market to nearly 600 million! Currently the iPhone enjoys a 3% penetration into the markets in which it is being sold, or about 4.7 million iPhones. If you project that out, we may be talking over 18 million iPhones by the end of this year! We haven't even talked about China Mobile and India's Bharti Airtel yet! They should account for another 500 million potential buyers alone!

You may look at that and think at first glance, that's pretty good growth. Think about this for a moment, this has to be conservative, we're assuming static penetration of 3%. The rate of market share will increase as well, especially when you consider the attention Apple will get at the Beijing Olympics. I believe Apple has a plan to leverage the Olympics in coordination with this global rollout, to make an impact that will eclipse the Super Bowl ad of 1984.

Let's assume Apple will increase their market penetration by 50%. I believe this is conservative. That would translate to another 9 million phones by the end of this year, for a total of nearly 27 million phones by the end of 2008. So, Apple put out the number 10 million in 2008. Zach's prediction? 20 million. Are we witnessing another Black Swan?