Federal Express, Market Outlook

Fedex was an interesting story today. It had been falling all last week prior to earnings. But this morning Fedex futures didn't budge (a clue). This morning it gapped down 3 points, then rallied nearly 5% to end slightly positive. It appears the MMs where profits, and fixed the price prior to earnings, thus earnings was a non event to the MMs. The day traders and smaller investors on the other hand were pawns in this scheme, they jumped in this morning going after a great short opportunity on the gap down. Little did they know, it was a Big Boy trap, as the MMs covered to meet Friday's close. Man these MMs are sneaky bastards!

Back to the Naz. It did pretty well today, albeit on fairly light volume, at least this up volume was slightly better than Friday's down volume (meaning today's Bulls had more strength than Friday's Bears). The Naz moved past resistance at 2450, and closed near it's high at 2488.49 +42.97 (+1.76% ), stopping at it's long-term down trend line. It still has the 200 day moving average to contend with at 2517. And if it takes that out, then there's the gap resistance at 2575, set back on January 6.

AAPL followed suit with a nice gain, but on very low volume. It hit resistance at 188.75 and closed at 188.16 +4.71 (+2.57% ), very close to where it ran into resistance last Wednesday when it went all the way down to 180 intraday. If you took profits at 188 or so I wouldn't blame you, I did at 187.70. I should note that AAPL is extremely overbought right now with the RSI at 72.65, but AAPL has shown in the past it can live in the stratosphere for weeks.

So, here's the lowdown. I believe the markets are going to try and rally Tuesday, because it would seem that's where the MMs want to take it right now. But if it starts up on little volume, I would be suspect. If it starts with good volume, it's probably the real deal. We would be looking for the Naz to clear 2517 (the 200 day MA). If it does that, then we're in no-mans land to the gap down. If we get there, that will be a new plateau from which we can look at some new positions. In the mean time, I recommend taking it slow.