Many wonder if the expected 3G iPhone has been baked into Apple's price. I'l have to say no. Apple has regained all this ground on the basis of their fundamentals and outstanding Mac sales, not the expectations of the new Jesus phone. I believe 200 is the correct price sans the 3G iPhone. The new iPhone, along with all the recent world-wide carrier deals, should bring Apple much higher.
Now for a technical analysis of a critical battle for both Apple and the Nasdaq (Naz), the 200 Day Moving Average (DMA).
Yesterday Apple (AAPL) led the Nasdaq with an initial charge at the 200 Day front. And although this isn't Apple's fight, as their 200 DMA is well behind them, Apple and the Naz share common interest in advancing through this level. For Apple it's strong price resistance, a remnant from a discouraging battle lost back in early January, which led to the infamous slide to 115.
This was the Naz's first try at a break through the 200 (2517 for the Naz), and first attempts at 200 DMAs rarely succeed. Apple has been a powerful force lately, but couldn't provide very good front line blocking this day because it had its own demons to contend with, being severely overbought (RSI >70) and strong price resistance in the 192-193 range. And don't forget, the Bears have a lot of skin in this game, they realize that a break through the 200 would be a major victory for the Bulls and will result in a surge of confidence that the Bears may have no defense in the near term.
As the day wore on, the Naz looked like it might do it, as it had climbed all the way to a high of 2528, with pretty good volume. But the Naz couldn't pull away from the 200, as the gravitational forces were too strong. By early afternoon "Big Guy Sell Time" was upon us, that's when all the Movers and makers (MMs) come back from lunch (approximately 1:35 PM). They had seen enough, yanked their toys from the sand box and went home.
AAPL led the "Big Guy" selloff, the rest of the Nasdaq soon followedAAPL and the Naz both plunged for the remainder of the session, until they both landed on their respective support levels. For AAPL, that's the 186-187 range (established last week), and for the Naz it's 2500. The 2500 level had previously been strong resistance for the Naz over the past 8 trading sessions, but with today's break through it has flipped to become solid support.
So, will today be they day the 200 DMA falls? Or, will the Naz and Apple regroup, recharge their batteries, and put together a collective surge tomorrow? Truth be told, I'd rather go into the weekend with the Naz breaking though the 200 DMA of 2517, and close well above it, and for AAPL to also break through it's resistance range of 192-193 and close well above that. This would convert these levels from resistance to support. From there, we can continue the advance.
