Monday, May 5, 2008

Shaw Wu, AmTech's Dr. Jekyll and Mr Hyde

Shaw Wu, an analyst with American Technology Research, has historically been one of the most bullish Apple analysts. That's why everyone was shocked when he had a reversal of character, and cut his rating from Buy to Hold and lowered his price target just before Apple reported their Q2 earnings on April 23rd. And he did this against a rising tide of optimism from other analysts. Now, just six weeks later, he's doing a 180 degree turnaround. He raised Apple stock to a Buy, and set a price target of $210 per share!

In a research note, Wu did his best song and dance to cover his schizophrenic prognostications by saying, [they] "overestimated the potential negative reaction on the quarter," adding that Apple will likely remain "extremely volatile despite being universally loved." Then he tossed some incoherent hypothesis that a "product vacuum" between now, and whenever Apple releases new product, might put a dent in sales.

So, then just to keep readers off balance, Wu reverted back from Mr. Hyde to Dr Jekyl and listed all the wonderful new products we can expect from Apple in the coming months. Like the 3G iPhone, expected to be announced in June, and "a radical redesign of [the] MacBook and MacBook Pro" laptops. He also pointed to the accelerating growth of Apple's PC market share. Then to make sure that his transformation was complete, Wu said he was confident that Apple would reach their 10 million iPhone goal by the end of the year.

We need analysts that analyze objectively, that report on fundamentals and facts, not what they see in a crystal ball. We don't need analysts that let their emotions rule their predictions, especially when they downgrade or upgrade a company. Stock holders must be able to rely on an analyst doing their job with professionalism and objectivity. Makes me wonder if Shaw Wu had one too many lunches with Toni Sacconaghi.

blog comments powered by Disqus